Offshore Risk Assessment

by
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 1999-08-01
Publisher(s): Kluwer Academic Pub
List Price: $349.99

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Summary

Offshore Risk Assessment is the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for some years in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions. The book starts with a thorough discussion of risk analysis methodology. Subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems. Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: Fire, explosion, collision and falling objects. Risk mitigation and control are then discussed, followed by an outline of an alternative approach to risk modelling that focuses especially on the risk of short-duration activities. Not only does the book describe the state of the art of QRA, it also identifies weaknesses and areas that need development. Readership: Besides being a comprehensive reference for academics and students of marine/offshore risk assessment and management, the book should also be owned by professionals in the industry, contractors, suppliers, consultants and regulatory authorities.

Table of Contents

Preface vii
Background to the Book vii
About the Contents viii
Acknowledgements viii
Nomenclature xxi
Introduction
1(12)
About `QRA'
1(1)
History of Offshore QRA
1(2)
QRA in relation to other Analysis Methods
3(1)
Objectives and Limitations
3(1)
Relevant Regulations and Standards
4(1)
Norwegian Regulations
4(1)
UK Regulations
4(1)
National and International Standards
5(1)
Terminology
5(5)
Abbreviations
10(3)
Risk Picture
13(28)
Definition of Risk
13(9)
Basic Expressions of Risk
13(1)
Dimensions of Risk
14(1)
Fatality Risk
14(5)
Frequency of Impairment
19(1)
Environment Risk
20(1)
Asset Risk
21(1)
How to Interpret Risk
21(1)
Risk Elements
22(2)
Personnel Risk
22(1)
Risk to Environment
22(1)
Risk to Assets
22(2)
Risk Presentation
24(12)
Fatality Risk
24(6)
Group Risk
30(2)
Impairment Risk
32(1)
Risk to Environment
32(2)
Asset Risk
34(1)
Load Distribution Functions
35(1)
Uncertainty Analysis
36(5)
Basis for Uncertainty Analysis
36(1)
Sources of Uncertainty
37(1)
Influence of Uncertainty
37(1)
Estimation Based on Observations
38(3)
Risk Presentation and Acceptance Criteria
41(27)
Risk Picture - North Sea
41(6)
Overview of Fatal Accidents
41(1)
Overview of Accidents to Personnel
42(1)
Fatal Accident Rates
42(1)
Trends in Fatality Rates
43(2)
Risk Level for Helicopter Transport
45(1)
Comparison Offshore - Onshore Activity
45(1)
Risk Potential
46(1)
Risk Acceptance Criteria
47(5)
Definition
47(1)
NPD Requirements
48(1)
Risk Acceptance Criteria Requirements by UK Regulations
49(1)
NORSOK Requirements
50(2)
Criteria used for Personnel Risk by Norwegian Petroleum Industry
52(4)
Potential Loss of Life (PLL)
52(1)
Fatal Accident Rate (FAR)
53(1)
Average Individual Risk (AIR)
53(1)
f-N Curve
54(1)
Risk Matrix
55(1)
Design Accidental Events
56(2)
Use of Design Accidental Events
56(1)
Main Safety Functions
57(1)
Cut-off Limit for Events that are Disregarded
57(1)
Environmental Spill Risk
58(4)
Basis
58(1)
Initial Approach
58(1)
Current Approach
59(2)
Suitable Criteria?
61(1)
Risk of Material Damage/Production Delay
62(1)
Risk Acceptance Criteria for Temporary Phases
62(1)
Use of Acceptance Criteria
63(5)
Comparative Studies
63(1)
Acceptability of Installation Risk
63(1)
Acceptability of Critical Operations
64(1)
Scope of Installations
65(1)
Platform Average or Area Specific
65(1)
Peak Values
65(1)
All Inclusive or Major Hazard Specific
66(1)
Temporary vs Permanent Effect
67(1)
Methodology for Quantified Risk Assessment
68(41)
Analytical Steps and Elements
68(6)
Analytical Elements
68(1)
Identification of Initiating Events
69(1)
Cause Analysis
70(1)
Modelling of Accident Sequences
71(1)
Consequence Analysis
72(1)
Risk Estimation, Analysis and Assessment
72(2)
Analysis Steps
74(4)
Requirements for Analytical Approach
77(1)
Hazard Modelling and Cause Analysis
78(4)
Blowout Hazard Study
78(1)
Process Hazard Study
78(1)
Riser/Pipeline Hazard Study
79(1)
Fire Load and Smoke Assessment
80(1)
Explosion Load Assessment
80(1)
Collision Hazard Study
81(1)
Dropped Object Hazard Study
81(1)
Structural Failure Study
82(1)
Analysis of Critical Risks
82(2)
Barrier Study
82(1)
Assessment of Safety Critical Systems
83(1)
Detailed Probability Study
83(1)
HOF Integration
83(1)
Detailed Consequence Study
84(1)
Revised Event Tree Study
84(1)
Analysis of different Risk Dimensions
84(1)
Impairment Analysis
84(1)
Fatality Risk Analysis
84(1)
Analysis of Environmental Spill Risk
84(1)
Analysis of Asset Risk
85(1)
Sensitivity Analysis
85(1)
Limitations of Risk Analysis
85(1)
Use of Software
86(1)
Data Sources
87(5)
Types of Data Sources
87(1)
Blowout Frequency
87(1)
Process System Leak Frequency
88(1)
Riser/Pipeline Leak Frequency
89(1)
Vessel Collision
89(1)
Falling Objects
90(1)
Marine Accidents
90(1)
Utility Area Accidents
90(1)
Helicopter Accidents
91(1)
Occupational and Diving Accidents
91(1)
Ignition Probability
91(1)
Safety System Reliability
91(1)
Data Sources for Reliability Analysis
91(1)
Data for Fatality Modelling
92(1)
Use of Installation Specific Data
92(5)
Generic Versus Installation Specific Data
92(1)
Combination of Specific and Generic Data
93(1)
Example, Combination of Data
94(1)
Data Sources for Installation Specific Data
95(2)
Execution of Quantified Risk Assessment
97(2)
Quality Aspects
97(2)
Documentation of Assumptions and Premises
99(1)
Typical Study Definitions
99(1)
Lessons from Major Accidents
99(10)
Overview
99(1)
Ekofisk Alpha Riser Rupture
100(1)
Ekofisk Bravo Blowout
101(1)
Capsize of Flotel Alexander L. Kielland
102(1)
Ocean Ranger Capsize
103(1)
West Vanguard Shallow Gas Blowout
104(1)
Brent Alpha Gas Explosion
105(1)
Piper Alpha
106(1)
Ocean Odyssey
107(2)
Analysis Techniques
109(42)
Hazard Identification
109(1)
Cause, Probability and Frequency Analysis
110(1)
Fault Tree Analysis
111(1)
Event Tree Analysis
111(1)
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
111(1)
Statistical Simulation Analysis
111(1)
Analytical Methods
111(1)
Event Tree Analysis
111(16)
Basics of Event Tree
111(4)
Major Hazard Scenarios
115(1)
Initiating Event Frequency
116(2)
Nodes in Event Trees
118(1)
End Event Frequency
119(1)
Gas Leak in Process Area
120(2)
Blowout Event Tree
122(3)
Gas Leak From Riser/Pipeline
125(2)
Event Sequence Analysis
127(2)
Time Dependency
127(1)
Node Sequence in Event Tree Modelling
128(1)
Directional Modelling
128(1)
HC Leak Modelling
129(1)
Ignition Probability Modelling
129(6)
Cox' Model
130(1)
Platform Specific Modelling
130(1)
Industry State-of-the-art Time Dependent Modelling
131(4)
Escalation Modelling
135(2)
Functionality
135(1)
Availability and Reliability
135(1)
Survivability
136(1)
Node Probability
136(1)
Escalation Analysis
137(9)
Modelling of Fire Escalation
137(2)
Modelling of Explosion Escalation
139(1)
Damage Limitation
139(2)
Response of Equipment to Fire and Explosion
141(2)
Tolerability Criteria for Personnel
143(1)
Impairment Criteria for Safety Functions
143(2)
Required Intactness Times for Safety Functions
145(1)
Analysis of Environmental Impact Risk
146(5)
Overview
146(1)
Measurement of Environmental Damage
147(1)
Event Trees
148(1)
Environmental Damage Distribution
149(2)
Fatality Risk Assessment
151(37)
Overview of Approaches
151(5)
Why Fatality Risk?
151(1)
Statistical Analysis
151(1)
Phenomena Based Analysis
152(2)
Averaging of FAR Values
154(1)
Actual Variations
155(1)
Occupational Fatality Risk
156(1)
Immediate Fatality Risk
157(9)
Overview
157(1)
Subjective Modelling
158(1)
Modelling Based on Physical Effects
159(3)
Is there a Need for Benchmarking?
162(4)
Analysis of Escape Risk
166(6)
Overview
166(2)
Escape Time Analysis
168(1)
Impairment Analysis
168(3)
Escape Fatality Analysis
171(1)
Analysis of Evacuation Risk
172(7)
Overview of Evacuation Means
172(5)
Impairment Analysis
177(1)
Evacuation Fatality Analysis
177(2)
Analysis of Risk associated with Rescue Operations
179(6)
Rescue Time Analysis
179(3)
Rescue Capacity
182(2)
Rescue Fatality Analysis
184(1)
Transportation Fatality Risk
185(2)
Fatality Distribution
186(1)
Comparison of Risk Associated with Shuttling
186(1)
Diving Fatality Risk
187(1)
Approach to Risk Based Design
188(24)
Overview
188(3)
About the Need for Risk Based Design
188(1)
Scope for Risk Based Design
189(1)
Challenges for Design
189(2)
Authority Regulations and Requirements
191(4)
Norwegian Regulations
191(2)
UK Regulations
193(2)
Relationship with Risk Analysis
195(6)
Suitable Risk Analysis
195(2)
Use of Event Trees
197(2)
Use of Consequence Models
199(1)
Sensitivity to Changes in Active Safety Systems
200(1)
Approach to Risk Based Design of Topside Systems
201(4)
Basis for Approach
201(1)
Fundamentals of Proposed Approach
202(1)
Overview of Sensitivities
203(1)
What should be the Target Protection Level
203(2)
Approach to Risk Based Design of Structural and Passive Safety Systems
205(1)
Practical Considerations
205(7)
Design Against Fire Loads
205(4)
Design Against Explosion Loads
209(2)
Design Against Collision Impacts
211(1)
Design Against Dropped Load Impact
211(1)
Fire Risk Modelling
212(29)
Overview
212(3)
Cases with Opposite Results
212(1)
Types of Fire Loads
212(1)
Structural Fire Impact
213(1)
Fire and Explosion Loads on People
214(1)
Topside Fire Consequence Analysis
215(3)
Mechanisms of Fire
215(1)
Fire Balls
216(1)
Gas Fires
217(1)
The Air Consumption in a Fire
217(1)
Choice of Calculation Models
217(1)
Analysis of Topside Fire Events
218(1)
Fire on Sea
218(6)
Delayed Ignition of an Instantaneous Release
219(1)
Ignition Probability of an Instantaneous Release
220(1)
What Determines the Likelihood of Fire on Sea?
220(3)
Loads from Sea Level Fire
223(1)
Analysis of Smoke Effects
224(3)
Methods for Prediction of Smoke Behaviour
224(2)
Smoke Flow and Dispersion
226(1)
Structural Response to Fire
227(3)
Manual Methods
227(1)
Uninsulated Steel
227(1)
Insulated Steel
227(3)
Risk Reducing Measures
230(1)
Overview
230(1)
Recent R&D Experience
230(1)
Dimensioning of Structural Fire Protection
231(10)
Case Illustration
231(1)
Dimensioning Fire
231(1)
Use of Dimensioning Fire
232(2)
Definition of Dimensioning Fire According to Structural Regulations
234(1)
USFOS Modelling
235(2)
USFOS Results
237(1)
QRA Modelling
237(2)
QRA Results
239(1)
Observations
240(1)
Explosion Risk Modelling
241(37)
Overview
241(1)
Introduction
241(1)
Explosion Loads on Structure
241(1)
Explosion Loads on People
241(1)
Explosion Frequency
241(4)
Event Tree Analysis
241(1)
Historical Frequencies
242(3)
Explosion Consequence Analysis
245(9)
Types of Explosion Loads
245(1)
Gas Explosion
246(1)
Blast Wave
247(1)
Pressure
248(1)
Formation of Explosive Cloud
248(2)
Deflagration
250(2)
Confined/Semi-Confined Explosion
252(2)
Probabilistic Approach to Explosion Load Assessment
254(5)
Basis
254(1)
Approach to Probabilistic Evaluation
254(1)
Probabilistic Evaluation
255(2)
Example
257(1)
Use of Load Function
257(1)
Structural Response Calculations
258(1)
Is a Probabilistic Approach the Best Way Forward?
259(1)
Explosion Risk Reduction
259(6)
Establishing Basis for Design
259(1)
Recent R&D Experience
260(1)
Main Experience, Mitigation
261(1)
Risk Reduction Possibilities
262(3)
Example, Dimensioning against Blast Load
265(6)
Introduction
265(1)
Basis for Dimensioning
266(1)
Design Capability
267(1)
Load Distributions
267(1)
Gas Explosion Frequency
268(1)
Reinforcement Costs
269(1)
Optimisation
270(1)
Case Study; Reduction of Blast Load
271(7)
Layout and Geometry
272(1)
Cases and Configurations Analysed
272(1)
Ventilation Results
272(1)
Explosion Studies
273(1)
FLACS Results
274(1)
Demonstration of Parameter Sensitivities
274(2)
Implications for QRA Modelling
276(1)
QRA Sensitivity Results
276(1)
Discussion and Evaluation
277(1)
Collision Risk Modelling
278(38)
Historical Collision Risk
278(3)
Significant Collisions
278(1)
Collisions on the Norwegian Platforms
279(1)
Attendant Vessel Collisions
280(1)
Modelling overview
281(3)
Introduction
281(1)
Merchant Vessels
281(1)
Naval Traffic
282(1)
Fishing Vessels
283(1)
Offshore Traffic
283(1)
Floating Units
284(1)
Passing Traffic
284(12)
Introduction
284(1)
Powered Passing Vessel Collisions - Model Overview
285(2)
Traffic Pattern and Volume
287(1)
Probability of Collision Course
287(5)
Probability of Failure of Ship Initiated Recovery
292(2)
Probability of Failure of Platform Initiated Recovery
294(1)
Example Results
295(1)
Model Validation
295(1)
Collision Energy
296(3)
Impact Energy and Platform Energy Absorption Capacity
296(1)
Mass of Colliding Vessels
297(1)
Impact Velocity of Colliding Vessel
297(1)
Critical Collisions
297(2)
Collision Consequences
299(2)
Failure Criteria
299(1)
Collision Geometry
300(1)
Local Collision Damage
300(1)
Global Damage
300(1)
Risk Reducing Measures
301(6)
Overview Over Risk Reducing Measures
301(1)
Passing Vessels
301(1)
Effect of Risk Reducing Measures
302(3)
Experience with Collision Avoidance
305(1)
Example
306(1)
Collision Risk Case Study
307(9)
Installation
307(1)
Routes
307(2)
Results
309(1)
Energy Distributions
310(1)
Intervention Options
310(2)
Collision Geometry
312(4)
Risk due to Miscellaneous Hazards
316(18)
Risk Picture
316(1)
Crane Accidents
316(1)
Ballast System Failure
317(1)
Accidents During Towing of Platforms
317(1)
Modelling of Dropped Object Impact
317(7)
Crane Load Distributions
318(1)
Physical Aspects of Falling Loads
319(1)
Probability of Dropped Loads
320(1)
Probability of Hitting Objects
320(1)
Consequences of Impact
321(2)
Impact Energy Distributions
323(1)
Ballast System Failure
324(8)
Ocean Ranger Accident
326(3)
Comparison of Ballast Systems
329(2)
Other RABL Conclusions
331(1)
Station Keeping Failure
332(1)
Loss Buoyancy
332(1)
Accidental weight condition
333(1)
Risk Mitigation and Control
334(20)
Introduction
334(1)
ALARP Analysis
334(5)
Background
334(1)
Overall Objectives of Cost Benefit Analysis
335(1)
ALARP Demonstration for Risk to Personnel
335(2)
ALARP Demonstration for Risk to Assets
337(2)
Optimisation of Emergency Preparedness
339(1)
Quantitative Comparison of Benefit and Cost
339(5)
General Model
339(2)
Company or Societal Consideration
341(1)
Deterministic Costs vs. Probabilistic Benefits
341(1)
Discounting of Future Losses
342(1)
Quantification of Costs
342(1)
Quantification of Benefit
342(2)
Valuation Aspects
344(2)
What Constitutes `Gross Disproportion'?
344(1)
Risk to Personnel
345(1)
Risk to the Environment
345(1)
Risk to Assest
346(1)
Case Study - Cost Benefit Analysis
346(8)
Field Data
347(1)
Definition of Risk Reducing Measure
347(1)
Risk Reducing Potentials
348(1)
Overall Approach to Comparison of Cost and Benefits
348(1)
Modelling of Benefits
349(3)
Modelling of Costs
352(1)
Results
352(1)
Discussion and Evaluation
352(1)
Conclusions
353(1)
Risk Control during Operation
354(17)
Study Updating
354(2)
Overview
354(1)
Scope of Updating
355(1)
Frequency of Updating
355(1)
Updating of Risk Acceptance Criteria
356(1)
Use of Sensitivity Studies for Safety Systems Improvement
356(4)
Risk Management Objectives
357(1)
Case study: Effect of Improved Blowdown
358(2)
Risk Indicators
360(7)
`PFEER' Approach to Risk Monitoring
360(2)
Objectives
362(1)
Proposed Approach to Selection of Individual Indicators
363(4)
Analysis of Maintenance Activities
367(1)
Overall Analysis of Modifications
367(3)
Overview
367(1)
Modification Risk in a Life Cycle Perspective
368(2)
Tie-in of New Facilities
370(1)
New Approach to the Characterisation of Risk
371(16)
Introduction
371(1)
Activity based Risk Quantification
372(2)
Overview
372(1)
Objectives of Activity Based Modelling
372(1)
Risk Increasing Activities
372(1)
Risk Increasing Conditions
373(1)
Comments About Risk Modelling
373(1)
Case Study Illustration
374(7)
Platform Overview
374(1)
Base Case Risk Level
375(1)
Overview of Specific Activities Considered
375(1)
Hot Work in Process Area
376(1)
Crane Operations over Process Equipment
377(1)
Passing Merchant Vessel
377(2)
Reduced Availability of Evacuation Means
379(1)
Reduced Availability of Fire Water Supply
379(1)
Hot Work and Reduced Fire Water Availability
380(1)
Individually based Risk Quantification
381(3)
Variations Between Activities
381(1)
Variations Between Areas
382(2)
Use of the Proposed Approach
384(3)
Risk Evaluation
384(2)
Operational Restrictions
386(1)
Applicability of Risk Assessment to Shipping
387(26)
Production and Storage Tankers
387(5)
Introduction
387(1)
General Characteristics
388(1)
General Concept Descriptions
389(3)
Accident Statistics for FPSOs
392(8)
Total Losses of FPUs
392(1)
Less Serious Incidents
393(1)
Operational Failures
394(1)
Accident Statistics for Tankers
394(2)
Concept Safety Assessment
396(1)
Results and Findings
397(2)
Comparison of QRA Results
399(1)
Consideration of Operational Safety Aspects
399(1)
Findings Regarding FPSO Safety
400(1)
Important Safety Aspects for FPSOs
400(9)
Purpose Built or Converted Tanker?
400(1)
Overall Layout
401(1)
Fluid Transfer Through Turret
401(1)
Vessel Turning around Turret
402(1)
Process Area
402(1)
Storage and Offloading
403(1)
Explosion Overpressure
404(1)
Protection of Tank Top
405(1)
Emergency Quick Disconnectors (EQDC)
406(1)
Shuttle Tanker Collision
406(1)
Escape and Evacuation
407(1)
Storage Tank Intervention
408(1)
Accident Statistics for Shipping
409(1)
Passenger Traffic
409(2)
Overview of Hazards
409(1)
Hazards
409(1)
Safety Case for Passenger Traffic
410(1)
Cargo Transport
411(1)
Hazard Overview
411(1)
Safety Case for Pollution Prevention
411(1)
Conclusions on Applicability for Shipping
412(1)
Appendix A Overview of Software 413(22)
A1.1 Introduction
413(1)
A1.2 Electronic Contacts
414(3)
A1.3 Quantitative Risk Assessment software
417(5)
A1.4 QRA Tools for Scenario and Probability Analysis
422(2)
A1.5 QRA Tools for Consequence Analysis
424(4)
A1.6 Qualitative Risk Assessment software
428(1)
A1.7 Reporting and Analysis of incidents and accidents
429(1)
A1.8 Risk Management software
430(5)
Appendix B NORSOK STANDARD Risk and Emergency Preparedness Analysis 435(34)
B1 Scope
436(1)
B2 Normative References
437(1)
B3 Definitions and Abbreviations
437(5)
B4 Establishment and Use of Risk Acceptance Criteria
442(2)
B5 Planning, Execution and Use of Risk and Emergency Preparedness Analysis
444(14)
B6 Risk and Emergency Preparedness Analysis for Mobile Units
458(2)
B7 Risk and Emergency Preparedness Analysis in Life Cycle Phases
460(9)
References 469(6)
Subject Index 475

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