Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics

by Thaler, David E.; Nader, Alireza; Chubin, Shahram; Green, Jerrold D.; Lynch, Charlotte

ISBN13: 9780833047731

ISBN10: 0833047736

Format: Paperback

Pub. Date: 2010-01-01

Publisher(s): RAND Corporation

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Summary

The U.S. ability to "read" the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been weakened by lack of access to the country and by the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To improve understanding of Iran's political system, the authors describe Iranian strategic culture; investigate Iran's informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities; assess the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy; and summarize key trends.

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxi
Abbreviations	p. xxiii
Introduction: Leadership Dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran	p. 1
Assertiveness and Caution in Iranian Strategic Culture	p. 5
Iran: The Conquering and Conquered Nation	p. 6
Nationalism as a Tool of Policy	p. 9
A New Revolutionary Paradigm	p. 13
Exporting the Revolution	p. 14
From Revolution to Pragmatism-and Back Again?	p. 16
The End of Pragmatism?	p. 17
Challenges to Iranian Power	p. 19
Formal Structures of the Islamic Republic	p. 21
The Supreme Leader	p. 24
The President	p. 25
The Majles	p. 27
The Assembly of Experts	p. 28
The Guardian Council	p. 29
The Expediency Council	p. 30
The Judiciary	p. 31
The Supreme National Security Council	p. 32
The Strategic Council for Foreign Relations	p. 33
Iran's Security Forces	p. 33
Concluding Remarks: Formal Structures	p. 35
Factionalism and the Primacy of Informal Networks	p. 37
The System: A Web of Personalities, Networks, and Institutions	p. 39
A Men's Club of Key Personalities	p. 43
The Supreme Leader: A Dominant Personality, but His Power Is Not Limitless	p. 44
Other Personalities: Prominence Is Tied to Proximity to the Supreme Leader	p. 48
A New Generation	p. 51
Informal Networks and Patronage Systems of the Khodi	p. 52
The 1980s: Era of the Clerics	p. 54
The 1990s: Era of the Bonyads	p. 56
The 2000s: Era of the Revolutionary Guards	p. 58
Formal Institutional Structure as a Playing Field for Informal Networks	p. 64
Factions: Supernetworks of Individuals, Relationships, and Power Centers	p. 67
Concluding Remarks: Factionalism and Informal Networks	p. 73
The Nexus of Domestic Politics and Policymaking in Iran	p. 75
Foreign Policy as a Backdrop for Domestic Politics	p. 76
Factional Policy Differences	p. 78
Iranian Policy in the Middle East: Factional Determinants and Geopolitical Context	p. 82
Factional Views of Middle East Policy	p. 84
Summary: Leadership Dynamics and Iranian Middle East Policy	p. 91
The Nuclear Case: Factionalism, Personality, and Policymaking	p. 92
The Reformist Approach: Building Confidence Abroad, Losing Ground at Home	p. 93
The Principlist Approach: Maintaining "Steadfastness"	p. 95
Factionalism and Personal Rivalry Deepen Under Ahmadinejad	p. 97
Khamenei's Factional Preferences Regarding the Nuclear Issue	p. 102
Summary: Leadership Dynamics and Iranian Nuclear Policy	p. 106
The Emergence of the Economy as a Factional Battleground	p. 107
Summary: Leadership Dynamics and Iranian Economic Policy	p. 112
Concluding Remarks: Domestic Politics and Policymaking	p. 113
Conclusion: Power and Politics in the Islamic Republic	p. 115
Key Observations on How the Iranian Political System Works	p. 115
The Informal Trumps the Formal and Is the System	p. 116
The Supreme Leader Retains the Most Power, but He Is Not Omnipotent	p. 116
Factional Competition Drives Political Discourse and Policymaking	p. 118
Iran's Domestic Power Politics Are Highly Dynamic and Periodic	p. 119
Emerging Trends to Watch in Iran	p. 120
The Revolutionary Guards: Will They Rise or Fall?	p. 120
The Old Guard: Vulnerable to Challenge?	p. 122
The Next Supreme Leader: Who or What Will Succeed Khamenei?	p. 123
Concluding Thoughts for U.S. Policymakers	p. 124
Bibliography	p. 127
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